PROBABILITY, STATISTICS AND MODELLING II 2018/2019
This is the companion website for the 2018-2019 module for 2nd year undergraduate students of the BSc in Crime Science at UCL.
Resources
The module handbook provides you with all information around assessment, learning outcomes, timetables, and a general overview of the module. Use the module handbook as your go-to guide throughout the module.
Week 1
No tutorial.
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
No tutorial.
Week 6
Week 7
- Lecture: Reporting and Assessing Statistical Evidence 2 (slides), (pdf)
Homework: revision of week 1-5.
- Required reading:
- Lakens, D., Adolfi, F. G., Albers, C. J., Anvari, F., Apps, M. A. J., Argamon, S. E., … Zwaan, R. A. (2018). Justify your alpha. Nature Human Behaviour, 2(3), 168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-018-0311-x
- Benjamin, D. J., Berger, J. O., Johannesson, M., Nosek, B. A., Wagenmakers, E.-J., Berk, R., … Johnson, V. E. (2018). Redefine statistical significance. Nature Human Behaviour, 2(1), 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0189-z
- Recommended reading:
Week 8
Required reading:
- Ortega, A., & Navarrete, G. (2017). Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: An Alternative to Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) in Psychology and Social Sciences. Bayesian Inference. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.70230
- Faulkenberry, T. J. (2018). A Simple Method for Teaching Bayesian Hypothesis Testing in the Brain and Behavioral Sciences. Journal of Undergraduate Neuroscience Education, 16(2), A126–A130. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30057494
- Rouder, J. N., Speckman, P. L., Sun, D., Morey, R. D., & Iverson, G. (2009). Bayesian t tests for accepting and rejecting the null hypothesis. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 16(2), 225–237. https://doi.org/10.3758/PBR.16.2.225
Recommended reading:
- Wagenmakers, E.-J., Lodewyckx, T., Kuriyal, H., & Grasman, R. (2010). Bayesian hypothesis testing for psychologists: A tutorial on the Savage–Dickey method. Cognitive Psychology, 60(3), 158–189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2009.12.001
- Wetzels, R., Matzke, D., Lee, M. D., Rouder, J. N., Iverson, G. J., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2011). Statistical Evidence in Experimental Psychology: An Empirical Comparison Using 855 t Tests. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6(3), 291–298. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691611406923
Week 9
- Lecture: Recap + Q&A (slides), (pdf)
- No homework (prepare for the exam).
- No tutorial.
Week 10
CLASS TEST
Module convenor and author: Bennett Kleinberg (bennett.kleinberg@ucl.ac.uk)
Department of Security and Crime Science, UCL